Here is a list of the 2004 states which were the closest (Obama is winning the top 19 based on current polling data:
States where margin of victory was under 5%
Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38%
Iowa, Bush, 0.67%
New Mexico, Bush, 0.79%
New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37%
Ohio, Bush, 2.11%
Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50%
Nevada, Bush, 2.59%
Michigan, Kerry, 3.42%
Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48%
Oregon, Kerry, 4.16%
Colorado, Bush, 4.67%
States where margin of victory was between 5% and 10%
Florida, Bush, 5.01%
New Jersey, Kerry, 6.68%
Washington, Kerry, 7.18%
Missouri, Bush, 7.20%
Delaware, Kerry, 7.60%
Virginia, Bush, 8.20%
Hawaii, Kerry, 8.75%
Maine, Kerry, 8.99%
Arkansas, Bush, 9.76%
Realistically I give him arkansas (#20) and thats about it. The top 19 should go to Obama. He has a chance in Ohio, Missouri and Florida but it is not looking good for him. Even if you wanted to be completely optimistic for McCain you’re looking at 4/20 tops. How can he expect to win like that? Based on current polling data *pollster.com, Obama should carry 19/20 of these.
Please, show me the light, find the path amongst these states for me:
Alabama – 9
Alaska – 3
Arizona – 10
Arkansas – 6
California – 55
Colorado – 9
Connecticut – 7
Delaware – 3
District Of Columbia – 3
Florida – 27
Georgia – 15
Hawaii – 4
Idaho – 4
Illinois – 21
Indiana – 11
Iowa – 7
Kansas – 6
Kentucky – 8
Louisiana – 9
Maine – 4
Maryland – 10
Massachusetts – 12
Michigan – 17
Minnesota – 10
Mississippi – 6
Missouri – 11 Montana – 3
Nebraska – 5
Nevada – 5
New Hampshire – 4
New Jersey – 15
New Mexico – 5
New York – 31
North Carolina – 15
North Dakota – 3
Ohio – 20
Oklahoma – 7
Oregon – 7
Pennsylvania – 21
Rhode Island – 4
South Carolina – 8
South Dakota – 3
Tennessee – 11
Texas – 34
Utah – 5
Vermont – 3
Virginia – 13
Washington – 11
West Virginia – 5
Wisconsin – 10
Wyoming – 3
You betcha you can use your calculator.